The latest figures on Victorian crime make for a difficult read, and without any hint of a silver lining, things are going to get worse.

A comparison between 2015 and 2025 highlights the increase in crime, but even more worrying is the dramatic increase in the 2025 figures. The increases are reaching warp speed, and there is no strategy or even visible effort to rein in the problem.

Key drivers included the cost-of-living crisis and an increase in repeat offending, particularly among young people. The year ending in June saw 497,116 criminal offences, an 8% increase on the previous year. The rate of offences per 100,000 people also rose by 13.8%. 

And that was 2015 – 10 years ago.

Now in Victoria, for the 12 months to March 2025, there was a 17.1% rise in recorded offences to 638,640. The crime rate also increased by 15.2% per 100,000 people.

This surge was driven by a 20.1% increase in criminal incidents and a 19.4% rise in alleged offender incidents, with significant increases noted in various areas, including theft, family incidents, and offences involving Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.  

Responsibility for this monumental failure lies with just three key pillars of our society: the Government, the Judiciary and the Police. The social justice brigade doesn’t count, as they are generally ineffective and often led by ideology rather than pragmatism.

The 2025 figures are disgraceful by any measure, but as in 2015, the incumbents responsible just kept following the same ineffective strategies without being held to account, and we will look back in another ten years, wringing our hands over how much worse things have become. The future looks grim.

‘The worst performance in Crime management in this State’s History.’ The rhetoric from the Police and the Government, in 2015, déjà vu, 2025.

The adage of ‘Doing the same thing tomorrow and expecting a different result’ holds true in crime management, but until some accountability is meted out, things will not improve.

The Government is at the top of the list for a smack.

Victoria Police also appeared to have taken a swipe at the State Government, claiming the “crime rate can be reduced when there is strong accountability for offending”.

Police minister Anthony Carbines conceded, “The latest crime statistics are unacceptable”.

But speaking with the Chief Commissioner about targeted disruption of organised crime seems the best the Government can do, and the Minister sees that as ‘a significant focus’; really?

That is the best the Government can come up with, ‘A significant focus’ while the state populace lives in fear.

That strategy has been employed for over a millennium, and see where that has got us?

Yes, strong accountability for offending will help, but that is not guaranteed to be acceptable to our woke judiciary, which has become unacceptably ineffective.

However, while the Government ducks and weaves, claiming the figures, as yet, don’t reflect the Government’s strong stance, it is an admission that the Government’s approach has had no deterrent effect and reveals just how ineffective the Government’s strategies are, resulting in a nil-all draw.

The electorate should be reminded that it was this government that weakened the Bail Laws, so it is somewhat disingenuous to talk about their reintroduction as being strong; more like a realisation that they got it monumentally wrong.

It was further reported that the Minister went on to claim ‘… the expectation of the government is that we continue to provide Victoria Police with every resource it needs to drive crime down,” he said.’

Isn’t this the same government that has applied austerity measures to prevent expanding police budgets for improved crime fighting? Talk about spin?

As for the Police, they cannot crow too much when they appear to be following the same unsuccessful strategies they were using in 2015.

All this hairy-chested rubbish about targeting organised crime when they know only too well that months and sometimes years of effort are required to lay a glove on the Mr Bigs of crime, if at all, but this strategy has shown it doesn’t work to reduce crime.

The best way to get promoted in a criminal gang is to have the police arrest the leader.

The Victoria Police also deserve a smack.

They have been stuck in a rut, not only for the last ten years, but for closer to twenty.

There have been two major problems: an obsession with Task Force Policing, Special Duties, and the Special Group Policing, which has depleted the frontline police necessary to handle the crime problem.

A former Chief Commissioner once told the CAA that the problem with policing is that recruits break their necks to get into a police uniform and, within a very short period, desperately try to get out of it, preferring to dress up, imitating US Special Forces.

A common sight of police dressed in mufti but wearing their weapons and accoutrements externally with ballistic vests with Police emblazoned on them makes a mockery of wearing plain clothes and is actually counterintuitive.

The other problem is that, whether it is driven by weak managers or government spin doctors, probably an element of both, announcing a Task Force to address a particular crime or cohort of criminals makes for a good headline, but whether they are effective or not remains moot.

Tony Mockbel is a case in point. The alleged mastermind behind the Methamphetamine trade reported in the news that his local TAB turnover peaks every time he comes in. The question is, if he is gambling big, where does he source his wealth, or is he laundering the proceeds of a crime?

His Tracking device has been removed, so all the money spent on the Mokbel prosecution was for nothing. The methamphetamine trade hasn’t stopped, and he returned to his normal life.

The cost to the community of the Purana Task Force that focused on Mokbel has been astronomical, and yet we are unaware of any empirical data that supports that this task force or for that matter, any one of the myriad others, works in reducing crime.

It would have been far more effective to dismantle Mokbel’s empire by targeting the lower-tier figures in his organisation, as that could have led to a much cheaper and more successful outcome, albeit not a headline grabber.

Task Force strategies distract Police from dealing with the problem at the sharp end, and reward for any Task Force effort rarely pays a dividend like reduced crime rates. As with all criminal enterprises, there is always a line of second, third, and probably fourth Mr Bigs waiting for their chance to take over.

Making arrests of themselves doesn’t necessarily solve a crime problem, but preventing crime in the first place always trumps arrests.

With a rationalisation of the Force’s priorities, the greatest chance we have of bringing crime under control is to allocate resources as a priority to Police Stations, bring them up to full strength, and then charge the Station Commanders with reducing crime in their defined areas. Giving ownership and responsibility for a patch is the key.

If that means that fewer Mr Bigs are charged, so be it, the current strategy is not reducing crime anyway.

The Station Commanders would know best how to deal with their particular community, and being connected with the community will go a long way towards the Police’s objective of reducing crime.

The Station Commander is the most responsible position in the Force, and offering some flexibility to engage with their communities will bring benefits. This flexibility must come with accountability, so to retain command, they must achieve established KPI’s – results do matter.

This approach will ensure that only the best and most capable Police Station Commanders are selected as future leaders of the Force.